Bounty Hunting – Modern Meta

This is a new segment I’m working on, and as such it may or may not be continued based upon how well it is received and whether people in general enjoy the content. In this segment I’ll break down the shift in numbers, and what they are telling us about the global Meta-game for a particular format.

Archetypes SCG Dallas Day 2 Mtgtop8 as of (6/27/16) Estimate
Infect

11%

8%

10%
Zoo

5%

10%

7%
Jund

12%

6%

8%
R/G Tron

8%

3%

5%
Nahiri Control

6%

4%

10%
Affinity

5%

8%

5%
Eldrazi Aggro (Bant Eldrazi)

5%

6%

6%
Abzan Company

6%

3%

3%
R/G Valakut

4%

4%

4%
Grixis Control

2%

4%

5%
Burn

5%

5%

5%
Merfolk

5%

4%

5%
Kiki-Chord

4%

1%

3%
Dredge

2%

5%

3%
Junk

2%

4%

2%
Hate bears

1%

3%

2%

Breaking Down SCG Dallas

Now, let’s remember the results are mildly skewed as one team placed 4 members into the top 8 with 3 different archetypes, 3 of those members into the top 4 (1 lost to another teammate in the top 8), and 2 of those members met in the finals. Those archetypes were Nahiri Control, Infect, and Grixis Delver, with Grixis Delver taking it down over Infect in the finals.
This tells me that the skill level of these team members may have allowed what I dub a “spike” or “overperformance” of an archetype simply because they could outplay their opponents. This isn’t a negative, but it does mean that the results they provide aren’t necessarily as accurate with a high disparity in skill levels.

For more deck lists from that event, go to http://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=12864&f=MO

The Hit List

Nahiri Control:
I’d say that this tournament will be a signal to the world that Nahiri Control will be a firm tier 1 deck. The tech. in this tourney of utilizing Geist of St. Traft and Spreading Seas as methods of helping the Valakut/Tron/Control Mirror matches seems like a pivotal point in the evolution of that archetype. We see a slightly higher percentage in paper magic with this archetype, and I don’t see that slowing down anytime soon with it having many very favorable tier 1 matchups.

Infect:
Infect keeps on putting up excellent results so long as the pilot is well-versed in sequencing against all his various opponents. I expect to see this continue to do well, especially given that as combo decks go, having one that can still occasionally go off on turn 2 is kind of nuts. This deck will recede if Abzan Company decks come back in force (Melira does kind of wreck this archetype).

Zoo:
There have been many attempted iterations of Zoo in these past few months. I like where the zoo list that made the top 8 of SCG Dallas (http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=104423) is positioned more than most and a large part of that is understanding the need for Flinthoof Boar over Tarmogoyf. I also love the main deck Mutagenic Growths as a nod to the uptick in spot removal in the form of damage (mainly bolts and helix’s). The only piece of his mainboard I personally dislike are the Gore-Clan Rampagers, because they aren’t efficient with the burning-tree shaman engine, and in general I’m uncertain how necessary they are. For now though, I’ll be testing this list, with perhaps the modification of cutting the Gore-Clan Rampagers in favor of 2 more mutagenic growth to maintain tempo against a Bolt-Heavy format. I expect this to be the new favorite of players for Aggro archetypes. It should be noted it does have a turn 2 win if it nut draws and no removal hits the creatures.

Jund:
Jund keeps on Grinding through to give 1-2 players a top 8 slot. I don’t think the deck is particularly well positioned at the moment, but that never stopped them before, and I doubt it will now. It should be noted that Nahiri Control seems to tear this deck apart, and has access to at least one if not multiple celestial purges post-board to wreck the typical plan Jund has against Control decks (play lily of the veil and ride it to victory as control players hemorrhage counters they draw too late). This deck will likely maintain it’s percentage unless players jump ship over to Nahiri Control as the new pseudo-midrange deck of choice.

Grixis Delver:
Grixis Delver was the breakout deck of SCG Dallas, having placed very poorly in the past few weeks, and honestly it hasn’t done much since Treasure Cruise was banned til now. I’ve given a nod to it being the champion in the rankings, but I expect that this was a flash in the pan performance due to an exceptional pilot, not because the deck was amazing. This is also in part due to the fact that this deck would only hold a top 4 slot at SCG Dallas if not for the play errors of the Nahiri Control pilot in game 2 of his match against Grixis Delver in the Semifinals. I think this archetype has a lot of developing to do, and I look forward to seeing where it goes.

R/G Tron:
Good old Faithful Tron. This deck lost a serious step with the banning of Eye of Ugin, but players have tried to revive the archetype by replacing the Eye of Ugin with Sanctum of Ugin. This deck ironically has an awful post-board match against Nahiri Control, and as that archetype is rising in both popularity and tuning for the metagame, I expect this archetype to accordingly decline in the upcoming months. That said, the newly spoiled card, “Emrakul, the Promised End” looks like almost an auto-include for this deck as it fundamentally changes the look of combo/control matchups, and could be excellent moving forward. Go to http://www.mythicspoiler.com if you want to see the new Emrakul.

Abzan Company:
This deck goes in and out of the spotlight depending on whether people are ready to hate it out of existence. Grafdigger’s Cage and Anger of the Gods still do a number on this archetype. I could see this re-working itself to deal with the hate, but that seems like an ineffective method of maximizing its potential. I believe when people are done hating this archetype it will make a temporary resurgence, much like the other pseudo glass-cannon archetypes of this format (good until 3-4 hate cards in the board prevent it from competing optimally).

Eldrazi Aggro:
This is a relatively new contender in the format now that Eye of Ugin is banned. There are two styles of Eldrazi archetypes: Bant Eldrazi and Eldrazi & Taxes. Both have shown problems with flooding on lands, and some awkward draws in general, but also show promise in terms of raw power, and the ability to utterly demolish mid-range/control archetypes. This archetype will rise if someone finds the way to properly tune this moving forward.

Modern Rankings Archetypes Weaknesses Strengths

1

 Nahiri Control Dredge is awful, R/G Valakut is questionable at best, as is Bant Eldrazi. Jund, G/R Tron, Infect, Scapeshift, Abzan Company.

2

 Infect Jund, Nahiri Control, Delver, decks that pack Sudden Shock. G/R Tron, Scapeshift, All other combo decks.

3

 Zoo Anger of the Gods and other timely Wrath effects along with Lifegain. Other Aggro Decks, Ramp and spot removal based control

4

 Jund G/R Tron typically is rough, as is Scapeshift all Aggro Decks and Combo Decks due to the heavy levels of removal and discard.

5

 Grixis Delver Burn and Merfolk are typically rough Tron, Scapeshift, Infect, Jund, Junk, and Nahiri Control.

6

 R/G Tron Mana Disruption side boarding strategies, Burn, and Infect. Jund, and Junk are favored, as are most mid-range archetypes.

7

 Abzan Company Anger of the Gods (main or board) and Grafdigger’s Cage out of the board. R/G Tron is still rough, as is Scapeshift. Zoo, Infect, Delver, and most combo/aggro archetypes besides these.

8

 Eldrazi Aggro Blood Moon, Mana Disruption, and Ramp/Combo Decks Jund, Junk and Nahiri Control tend to be quite favored.

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